Prediction Markets Are Attracting Attention: First Movers, Take Note

Highlights 

• Prediction markets have moved from a niche interest to the spotlight, with the monthly notational volume of trading surging 130x in under two years, climbing to a monthly value of $13 billion¹

• For wealth businesses, these markets provide a new opportunity to adapt to customer needs and interests, increase wallet share, and boost engagement with new types of investors 

• You can plug into this emerging market without operational heavy-lifting using a tech-forward solution from Apex 

Event Contracts. Cleared Swaps. Prediction Markets. The prediction market industry could reach $1 trillion in annual trading volume by 2030.² If that projection sounds ambitious, consider the momentum already underway: monthly notational value has surged 130x, from under $100 million to over $13 billion.¹ Interest is growing among next-generation investors, and prediction markets allow for 24/7 engagement, during hours when traditional markets are closed — including weekends.³ 

For most firms, the question isn’t if they should pay attention, but how to get involved without taking on a massive operational lift. Right now, only a handful of solutions exist for offering prediction markets, leaving room for firms to differentiate by being among the first to bring event contracts to clients on their own platform.  

Apex is building a solution that lets you plug into the expanding ecosystem without building from scratch, potentially saving you months of integration work and expense in the process. Here’s a look at the milestones that brought prediction markets to this point and some of the practical steps you can take to get started. 

A Brief History on Predicting the Future 

While the technology behind today’s online prediction markets is new, the idea is not. Markets for predicting outcomes (such as elections) existed in 15th-century Italian city-states and 18th-century British coffeehouses.⁴ In the U.S., similar markets for predictions had largely receded by the 1930s as modern statistical polling methods emerged.⁴ ⁵ More importantly, the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) was passed in 1936.⁶ This act established the regulatory framework for futures trading and eventually led to the creation of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the same body that oversees today’s regulated event contracts and cleared swaps. 

Prediction Markets: Regulated and Ready for Growth in the U.S. 

Today, CFTC-regulated event contract exchanges capture a longstanding public interest in making predictions. In 2020, the CFTC approved Kalshi as the first regulated exchange dedicated to trading event contracts, demonstrating that a fully supervised event contract exchange can operate within the U.S. regulatory framework.⁷ ⁸ 

• CFTC: This independent federal agency administers and enforces the CEA 

• National Futures Association (NFA): This self-regulated organization has delegated authority from the CFTC to regulate the U.S. derivatives industry 

Firms interested in offering futures have certain requirements to meet within this framework, including registering as an introducing broker (IB) with the NFA and paying required fees. 

Integrating Non-Traditional Assets 

Adding new asset classes like event contracts can be a heavy lift, requiring a firm to build and maintain complex, individual integrations with each exchange. That complexity is one reason so few firms have moved yet — and why we’ve created a simpler path. Our solution is to provide a single point of entry to multiple non-traditional asset providers through our Non-Traditional Asset Platform (NTAP), part of our Apex AscendOS™.  

Instead of building from scratch, the NTAP lets you plug into the prediction markets ecosystem using our existing infrastructure. The NTAP works with the Ascend Ledger, which captures and stores bookkeeping records for a single source of truth across all the asset classes you offer from equities, ETFs, Fixed Income, Mutual Funds, Alternatives, and Event Contracts. 

Apex Does the Heavy Lifting 

For wealth firms, building the technology from scratch can be a lengthy, complex, and expensive process. We’ve already done the technical work to integrate with prediction market exchanges. And, as a clearing Futures Commission Merchant (FCM), Apex can also handle operations behind the scenes. That means your path to offering prediction markets is much more straightforward: complete compliance steps, connect to AscendOS, and build your UI. Your clients get a streamlined experience, and you skip the infrastructure headaches — including the processing demands of a 24/7 market.³ 

Traditional and Emerging Asset Classes, Side by Side 

When you offer prediction markets through Apex, you aren’t just adding another product; you’re creating a more cohesive experience few competitors can match today. Although event contracts are held in a separate, CFTC-regulated brokerage account, displaying them alongside other account types on your platform can help provide a unified experience that reduces app-hopping. Not only can this experience help engage clients who already know and trust your platform, it may also encourage new clients to join who are interested in emerging asset classes. 

A Tool for Client Retention 

Providing a comprehensive suite of asset classes can be a first line of defense against customer turnover. Today, investors are one click away from opening an account with a competitor that offers the one product you don’t. By integrating prediction markets directly into your platform, you’re not only adding a feature; you’re also removing a reason for your clients to leave and helping to capture their full share of wallet. 

And, through your one-time integration to AscendOS, you’ll have access to Equities, ETFs, Mutual Funds, Fixed Income, Alternative Investments, Event Contracts, and more as new assets are added to AscendOS. 

The Path to Offering Prediction Markets 

Adding prediction markets can help differentiate your platform and capture around-the-clock transactions.³ Before you can get your prediction markets offering to market, there are a few regulatory and technical needs that must be met. With Apex, you don’t have to navigate them alone. Here’s a look at what it takes to get started. 

Regulatory Requirements for Event Contracts 

Because prediction markets are regulated as futures, firms interested in hosting them will need to be in compliance with NFA standards. These include (but are not limited to):  

• Completing NFA requirements, including registering as an Introducing Broker (IB) and paying all required fees 

• Employing someone with an active FINRA Series 3 license, who will be your in-house expert responsible for supervising futures-related activities 

Building Your Prediction Markets Experience 

While Apex handles the backend clearing and custody, you get to create the front-end experience. This involves two main parts: 

• Integrate with AscendOS, our cloud-native clearing, custody, and trading infrastructure 

• Use the Developer Portal to build a predictions UI that matches the rest of your experience, SDKs, documentation, code samples, agentic AI support, quick-start guides, and (coming soon) API documentation  

You’re not starting from scratch; you’re building on a foundation we’ve already laid. This can help you focus your resources on what your clients see and experience. 

The Bottom Line 

Prediction markets have moved from a niche interest to a regulated and growing multi-billion-dollar asset class. For your clients, especially the next generation of investors, prediction markets represent a new way to engage with the markets. For your firm, they represent a clear opportunity to attract new users, retain the ones you have, and add a new revenue stream for your business —  especially for those who move while the field is still open.  

Ready to Explore Your Options? Let’s Talk 

Getting started doesn’t mean building a new clearing operation from the ground up. With Apex, you can plug into the infrastructure you need to offer this emerging asset, allowing you to focus on creating the best experience for your clients. 

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